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2. Chinese excavator market passes its peak

Excavator sales in China have seen a remarkable surge in recent years. In 2015 and 2016 the market was extremely depressed at around 40,000 units (above 6 tonnes operating weight) per year. However, with 125 per cent growth in 2017 and a further 42 per cent rise in demand last year, the market moved to more than 140,000 machines in 2018. Demand in China is almost entirely for crawler excavators, with wheeled machines accounting for less than 1 per cent of demand.

The rise was driven by a combination of new infrastructure projects and a lack of enough machines in the active fleet in China to cope with the increased workload. A key factor in this has been the implementation of the China III engine emission laws. Machines reaching this standard have become mandatory in certain areas – particularly urban sites – and this has accelerated the replacement cycle.

Off-Highway Research’s new Equipment Analysis on the hydraulic excavator industry in China also looks in-depth at machine production. This has of course risen with domestic demand in recent years, but OEMs based in China are also increasingly using their factories to serve export markets. Increasing production and the impact on foreign trade is discussed in depth in the study.

Excavator sales this year are expected to be only 6 per cent lower than the peak achieved in 2018, with a more pronounced drop-off in 2020 and 2021.

Off-Highway Research’s September 2019 Hydraulic Excavators China Equipment Analysis is now available to subscribers to the Chinese Service. Click here to log in. The report can also be bought as a stand-alone publication by non-subscribers. Click here for more details or contact [email protected] to enquire about a subscription.